The VSS press release is dense with jargon and forecasts. Since the early 1990s here at Lightbulb we’ve had a great distaste for digital content industry financial forecasts. IT research houses were either not fully in touch or seemed too often to overstated figures. You’ll notice forecasts are also avoided in statistics kept by our insect friend at The Fly Speaks.
The VSS press release for Forecast basically states the obvious, eg digital media content is going up, traditional media dependant on advertising is going down.
However, the financial and econometric data on which Forecast is based, is very impressive. For example it compares corporate media returns against the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Index and S & P 500 Index. This is how VSS describes its approach: “Unlike forecast data aggregators, VSS employs a rigorous and unique bottom-up data collection and media econometric methodology enabling users to drill down into a deep repository of trend data for predictive insights and apples-to-apples comparisons.”
So Lightbulb will allow one forecast item to slip through its filter.
It’s the table below (it appears in the press release). The table lists the sectors from 2009-2013 which are predicted to be shrinking or growing in U.S. communications, media, online media, publishing, advertising, education, entertainment and information sectors. Again, relatively obvious but a nice simplification.
What is Growing? | ||
Internet Media | Word-of-Mouth Marketing | |
Professional Information | Subscription Television | |
Business Information | Mobile Advertising and Content | |
Education | Videogames | |
Direct Marketing | Business-to-Business e-Media | |
Event Marketing | Tradeshows | |
Public Relations | Digital Out-of-Home | |
e-Books | ||
What is Shrinking? | ||
Newspapers | Yellow Pages | |
Consumer Magazines | Business to Business Magazines | |
Broadcast Television | Home Video | |
Radio | Recorded Music | |
Traditional Out of Home | Traditional Consumer Books |
What is Growing? | |
Internet Media | Word-of-Mouth Marketing |
Professional Information | Subscription Television |
Business Information | Mobile Advertising and Content |
Education | Videogames |
Direct Marketing | Business-to-Business e-Media |
Event Marketing | Tradeshows |
Public Relations | Digital Out-of-Home |
e-Books | |
What is Shrinking? | |
Newspapers | Yellow Pages |
Consumer Magazines | Business to Business Magazines |
Broadcast Television | Home Video |
Radio | Recorded Music |
Traditional Out of Home | Traditional Consumer Books |
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